Lebanon offers the classic case of overreach in the modern Middle East, where the Maronite Christians made use of their strengths to bust out of their small domain and include substantial numbers of Muslims in "le grand Liban." Over a half century later, they had cause to rue this ambition, when they were demographically outnumbered, militarily defeated, and politically shunted aside by other religious communities.
It will be exactly forty years in a month since Israeli forces captured the whole of Jerusalem - making it an especially apt moment to reflect on the overly-ambitious geographic aspirations Israelis have had since then for their presence in Jerusalem. Demographic trends suggest it makes more sense from a Zionist perspective for them to pull back to Jerusalem proper, recognizing that "le grand Jerusalem may produce as unhappy a future for the minority population as did its Lebanese precursor.
There is nothing if not demographics which is so unscientific an issue. In 1966, the threat was based on 8 children per Muslim woman in the Gallil. And now?