Using the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, which is part of the Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center, the government institution for commemorating the legacy of the Israeli intelligence community, I went back to the end of August 2023 to see and be reminded what was the situation, as regards open intelligence, of the events leading to the Hamas attack on October 7.
Aug. 30-Sept 5
The Palestinian terrorist organizations in the Gaza
Strip continue to develop and improve their rocket systems. An attempt to
smuggle explosives from the Gaza Strip to Judea and Samaria was foiled. For the
third consecutive week, Palestinians demonstrated at the border security fence.
The national authority for return marches in the Gaza Strip has begun
rebuilding the return camps and preparing them for the possible renewal of the
marches. The leaders of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) met in
Beirut with the Iranian foreign minister and Hezbollah’s secretary general.
Sept. 6-12
On the eve of the Jewish High Holidays, the Israeli
media reported that senior IDF officers warned Hamas through intermediaries not
to engage in escalation. Hamas denied the reports and emphasized it would
continue to fight Israel in every arena.
On September 12, 2023, the joint operations room of
the military-terrorist wings of the Palestinian organizations held its fourth
“military” maneuver, which included live fire, rocket launches towards the sea
and a simulated attack on an Israeli position. Hamas banned protest
demonstrations near the security fence after that became a condition for the
resumption of activity at the Kerem Shalom Crossing, which was suspended after
an attempt to smuggle weapons. The chairman of Qatar’s National Committee for
the Reconstruction of Gaza participated in the negotiations for reopening the
crossing.
Sept. 13-20
This past week riots were renewed along the Gaza
border, and Palestinians threw IEDs and hand grenades, burned tires and
launched incendiary balloons. One Palestinian was killed by IDF forces in the
southern Gaza Strip and five others were killed by an explosive device in the
eastern Gaza Strip before it could be thrown at Israeli soldiers. The apparent
cause of the riots was the breakdown of talks between Mohammed al-Emadi, chairman
of Qatar’s National Committee for the Reconstruction of Gaza, and the Hamas
leadership regarding the amount of Qatar’s financial support for the Gaza
Strip, and other excuses included the arrival of Jewish worshipers at the
Temple Mount compound on Rosh Hashanah and the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli
jails. Following the riots the Erez Crossing remained closed to laborers and
businessmen who wanted to enter Israel.
Sept. 20-27
This past week violent clashes continued along the
border security fence in the Gaza Strip. Palestinians shot at IDF forces and
threw IEDs. The number of incendiary balloons launched at the Israeli
communities near the border rose, causing several fires. In response, the IDF
attacked several Hamas positions near the Gaza border. Several boats sailed
from Gaza port in a staged “protest flotilla.” Israel left the Erez crossing
closed to the entry of Palestinian workers into Israel (a situation which has lasted
more than 12 days). International and Arab efforts at mediation have yet to
bear fruit. Reports continue about the Hamas administration’s severe financial
hardship.
A meeting was held in Beirut by the deputy head of
Hamas’ political bureau, the secretary general of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad
(PIJ) and the deputy secretary general of the Popular Front for the Liberation
of Palestine (PFLP). They expressed support and pride for the activities and
attacks of the “resistance” [terrorist attacks] in Judea and Samaria and
emphasized the importance of escalation and armed “resistance” [terrorism]
against Israel.
Were there indications that Hamas was deterred?
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