Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Demography Demonology Dead?

Israel, we have lectured to for five decades, cannot maintain its rule over Judea and Samaria because there are too many Arabs.  It started in government deliberations in the months after the 1967 Six Days War and continued until today.

Or yesterday.

Here's the Haaretz report by Amira Hass:

Lebanon Census Finds Number of Palestinian Refugees Only a Third of Official UN Data

A census in Lebanon finds 175,000 Palestinian refugees living in the country, while the UN figure put their number at 500,000

Fox News via Associated Press:

Census shows there are 174,422 Palestinians in Lebanon

BEIRUT –  The first official census of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon has revealed that there are 174,422 Palestinians now living in Lebanon, a figure almost two thirds less than previously estimated.

The Jewish Press asks:

 How Did Lebanon Misplace a Quarter-Million ‘Palestinians’?

A based-in-England Arab outlet spins it this way:

Palestinians in Lebanon less than half previous estimate, census shows

Palestinian leaders believe revelation of fewer Palestinians in the country should encourage politicians to improve their conditions

And further informs that the

UNRWA welcomed the census and will be able to better plan its programmes with the “updated and accurate information...Now we will have scientific data in hand,” 

And details the method:

The census was conducted by the Lebanese Central Administration of Statistics and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics under the umbrella of the Lebanese Palestinian Dialogue Committee, a group formed by the Lebanese government to study and propose policies related to the Palestinian population.

Hundreds of Palestinian and Lebanese youth went from house to house with tablet computers to conduct the count, and the data was then linked to the location of the dwellings using a geographic information system, Director-General of the Lebanese Central Administration of Statistics Maral Tutelian Guidanian said.

The point is that

The census contradicts earlier estimates of more than 450,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.

According to the official Palestinian Authority's population data, there were  2,935,368 Arabs residing in the territory they call the 'West Bank' at the end of 2016.

If we apply the Lebanese Theorem Principle, there are probably under 2,000,000 Arabs in that area in actuality.

We know that the data show that in 2015 24.4% of the West Bank population are refugees while 68.5% of Gaza Strip population are refugees.

We also know the emigration figures are high as findings show that 23.6% of youth (15-29 years) in Palestine desire to migrate abroad.

We know the birth rate and fertility is low.  We know the growth rate is low. 

And now via Lebanon we know they cheat at statistics.

It would seem the Demography Threat is not as bad as it is portrayed.


Yoram Ettinger, who has been on this issue for years,  just wrote me that his data indicates but 1.85 million Arabs living in Judea and Samaria.

Yakov Faitelson is also exact in details on this matter and accuses the Pal. Authority of hiding data.

Ian Lustick who has jettisoned the Two-State Solution long ago ("Dead Plan Walking"), and again just recently, and who believes that the "paths to political decisions in Israel and the United States that could result in that outcome via negotiations are so implausible that the negotiations themselves end up protecting and deepening oppressive conditions", has argued that population data is being manipulated - by Zionists. Who is been manipulating really?


1 comment:

Joe in Australia said...

UNRWA exists to funnel resources to (what should be) a known, closed group of beneficiaries. Even a 10% discrepancy would have been astonishing. A 65% discrepancy can only be explained by massive fraud reaching back decades. It doesn't prove that the PA's own figures are also lies, but it seems likely that they're either partially based on UNRWA's figures or massaged to be consistent with them. Otherwise, how could the PA's census report vastly different results from UNRWA settlements without alerting people?