This is the Latest Peace Index

From the December 2006 Peace Index published monthly by the Tel Aviv University's Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann

The education minister’s decision to have the Green Line marked on maps in schoolbooks, and the controversy it sparked, led us to reexplore this month the Israeli Jewish public’s views on the future of the settlements and relations with the Palestinians.

In keeping with the Education Committee of the Knesset, and unlike the minister’s position, the rate of those preferring that the Green Line not be marked on the maps is higher than the rate of those who agree with her. Likewise, even though a considerable majority of the Jewish public realizes that it is impossible to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians without evacuating most of the Jewish settlements in the territories, only a minority supports such an evacuation and an
even smaller minority thinks the Palestinians would sign a peace treaty in return.

At the same time, opinions are divided on the government’s recent decision to expand some settlements in the territories so that they can absorb evacuees from the Gaza Strip. That is, at least some of the opponents of an evacuation oppose a further expansion of settlements, apparently out of worry of aggravating relations with the Palestinians. In other aspects of relations with the Palestinians, too, there is a certain ambivalence in the public’s positions, resembling or perhaps influenced by the government’s policy on the issue.

Despite the prevailing assessments that most of the Palestinians would destroy the state of Israel if they could and that the recent decline in terror attacks was caused first and foremost by preventive Israeli actions and not by Palestinian measures, we found sweeping support in the Jewish public for holding contacts like the recent meeting between Olmert and Abu Mazen.

Those are the main findings of the Peace Index survey for December 2006 that was carried out on 1- 2 January 2007. Exactly half the public opposes the education minister’s decision to start marking the Green Line on schoolbook maps while 38% support it (the rest have no clear opinion on the matter). As expected, the support runs very high among Meretz voters— 78%, and Labor voters— 69%. Kadima voters are divided on the question. Among voters for the rest of the parties, opponents have a clear majority.

We checked, therefore, current views about the territories beyond the Green Line. It turns out that a clear majority of 59.5% think or are sure that it is now impossible to reach peace with the Palestinians without evacuating a majority of the Jewish settlements in the territories; 16% are not sure or have no opinion on the issue; and only about one- quarter think or are sure that peace can be reached even without dismantling most of the settlements. Nevertheless, 53% oppose evacuating most of the Jewish settlements in the territories for a full peace agreement and only 34% favor it (the rest have no clear opinion or no opinion on the subject). This opposition could be rooted in the widespread view— 68%— that even dismantling most of the settlements would not suffice for the Palestinians to sign a full peace agreement with Israel.

A cross- section of the two questions— readiness for a mass evacuation and assessment of the chances that the Palestinians would be satisfied— shows that both among supporters and opponents of an evacuation, a majority thinks it would not be enough to bring the Palestinians to sign a full peace agreement with Israel. As expected, this majority is slightly smaller among the supporters of an evacuation.

Despite the reservations about an evacuation, a majority of the public does not back the government’s decision to expand certain settlements so that they can absorb evacuees from the Gaza Strip. On this question the opinions are split with, in fact, a slight advantage for the opponents: 41% favor an expansion and 45% oppose it, apparently out of concern about aggravating relations with the Palestinians. A segmentation of the responses by voting for the Knesset shows a clear distinction between Left and Right. Eighty- nine percent of Meretz voters and 84% of Labor voters oppose an expansion. A majority— 56%— of Kadima voters are against it while 36% support it. In all the other parties, a majority of voters favor it.