Polls, Polsters and the Public

I found this paragraph at the monthly Peace Index Poll for March:

Anticipated effects of moving the American embassy to Jerusalem: The majority of the Jewish public (61%) sees a high chance that moving the American embassy to Jerusalem for Israel’s 70th Independence Day will ignite a violent outbreak against Israel on the Palestinian side (the rate who think so in the Arab public is the same). To those who responded that the chance of violence is high, we posed the question of whether it would, then, be prudent or not for Israel to request that the United States postpone the transfer of the embassy to a different date. The distribution of responses to this question in the Jewish public was clear-cut: 69% think that even in light of the expectation of violence, Israel should not ask the Americans to postpone moving the embassy. In other words, even though the majority sees the situation as combustible, they are against any concession aimed at forestalling possible violence. In the Arab public, the large majority (77.5%) takes exactly the opposite stance, favoring a request to defer the transfer of the embassy.

I wonder:

if I did a poll how did those who responded came even to think there would possibly be violence with one of the options being

Actually, I hadn't thought of it until the Peace Index pollsters asked me

I think more the 50%, at least, would select that reply.

^

Israelis and Their Opinions in Polls

I have blogged about this aspect of Israeli public opinion previously.

To summarize:

1. Most Israelis lean right. This is obvious since 1977 when governments favoring right-wing policies have consistently been able to be confirmed by Knesset vote due to a majority of the parties agreeing to such a policy.

2.  In answering polls, a majority responds with right-leaning opinions.

3. When asked specifics, however they tend to reply in a way in which they think complies with hw the world thinks they should be thinking.

Example from the December Peace Index:

The status of Jerusalem - between aspirations and reality: What do Israelis want? A majority of the Jewish public (72%) thinks that after stable peace between Israel and the Palestinians has been achieved, Jerusalem should be united and the capital of Israel (including those who would accept the Islamic holy places being in the Palestinians’ hands). Very few see a likelihood of alternatives that would reduce Israel’s control of the city: 12% think that in a situation of peace, the western part should remain the capital of Israel and the eastern part should be the capital of Palestine; 7% say Jerusalem should be an international city; while 5.5% believe the city should remain united and be the joint capital of Israel and Palestine. In the Arab public the highest rate, 44%, wants the city to be divided with the eastern part serving as the capital of Palestine and the western part as the capital of Israel. The second largest rate, 22%, wants it to remain united and be the capital of both countries, Israel and Palestine.And what do people think will actually happen? To the question “What, in your opinion, will in fact happen if a peace agreement is signed between Israel and the Palestinians?” half (50%) of the Jewish public answered that the city will remain united and the capital of Israel (including those who think it will remain united but the Islamic holy places will be transferred to the Palestinians), about a quarter expect it to be divided and to be the capital of both states, and small percentages chose a common capital or an international city as likely alternatives. The high rate of Arab interviewees who did not give an answer to this question, about one-third, prevents us from relating to this sample’s distribution of responses.

^

Another Opinion Poll

From Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann's Peace Index:  July 2017 published: 02/08/2017 (Survey dates: 25/07/2017 - 27/07/2017)

The prime minister’s handling of the Temple Mount crisis: 

The survey findings show that a majority of the Jewish public (64%) does not see the prime minister as handling the current crisis on the Temple Mount judiciously. A segmentation of the Jewish interviewees’ responses by political camp revealed that even among those defining themselves as right-wing, most do not view the prime minister as managing the crisis judiciously, and that this view is even more pronounced in the center and on the left, though apparently for different reasons than among the right-wingers. 

Yes, of course.

The installation of the metal detectors at the entrances to the Al-Aqsa Mosque: 

At the same time, on the question of whether the prime minister acted properly in deciding to install the metal directors at the entrances to the Al-Aqsa Mosque, even though according to media reports the IDF and the Shabak opposed the measure, the Jewish public is almost evenly split between those who think he acted properly (45%) and those who maintain the opposite (47%). In the Arab public a lopsided majority (82%) considers that Netanyahu did not act properly in deciding to install the metal detectors. 


Is the prime minister using the Temple Mount crisis to divert attention from the investigations? 

In the Jewish public the majority (57%) rejects the claim that the prime minister is not trying to alleviate the Temple Mount crisis because he wants to divert the public’s attention from the investigations of his associates in the different corruption affairs. In the Arab public a majority—not large (54%)—believes Netanyahu is indeed making use of the Temple Mount crisis to divert public attention from the investigations of his associates.

^

What Israelis Think, June 2017

From The Peace Index: June  2017, published on July 5, 2017 with survey dates from June 27 to July 2.

The chances of renewing Israeli-Palestinian negotiations: ... 63% of the Jewish public sees low chances of that happening. A majority (55%) of the Arab public, too, downplays the chances of resuming the talks...

Are the sides interested in an agreement? A small majority of the Jewish public (53%) thinks or is sure that the current Israeli government is not interested in reaching a permanent settlement with the Palestinians...

The national-security situation: To the question “How would you define Israel’s security situation at present?” 66% of the Jews responded that Israel’s security situation is good, and even a slightly higher rate (69%) among the Arabs saw it that way. On this question we did not find substantial gaps between the Israeli population’s political camps.

The ability to trust the government and the IDF if a war breaks out: In the Jewish public, 57% trust the current government to make prudent security decisions in such a situation. As for the IDF’s ability to win should a war erupt, the public’s assessment is unequivocal: 88% trust the IDF. That is, while a substantial minority of the public does not trust the decisions the government would make, the Jewish public has almost no doubts about the IDF’s ability to prevail in each of those possible wars...

... regarding the chances that a Third Intifada will erupt in the coming year, we found a small majority (52%) of the Jewish public estimating the chances of it as low. Some 60% of the Arabs similarly see little likelihood that a Third Intifada is imminent.

Concerning the current government’s ability to make security decisions if a Third Intifada erupts nonetheless, a small majority (52%) of the Jewish public trusts it while a large minority (44%) does not put stock in its capabilities if that happens. When it comes to the IDF’s ability to contend with and stop a Third Intifada if it breaks out, again almost all of the Jewish public (82%) trusts it...

The Israeli public’s resilience: As for the Israeli public’s ability to cope successfully if a war or a Third Intifada erupts, 85% of the Jewish public thinks or is sure that it can cope successfully...

That wasn't bad at all.

I guess most Israelis don't read Haaretz.

^

Preferred Government Poll Result

From the March 2017 Peace Indix Poll:-

The preferred government: 
If elections were to be held in the near future, a decisive majority of the Jewish public (70%) would want a right-wing (34%) or center-right (36%) government to take office as a result. A minority (24%) would prefer a center-left (22%) or left-wing (2%) government. A similar pattern of responses, but more clear-cut, emerges on the question of what government would have higher chances of being established if elections were to be held soon: 81% of the Jewish respondents estimate that a right-wing (35%) or center-right (46%) government would have higher chances, while only 8% attribute higher chances to a center-left (7%) or left-wing (1%) government. In other words, the overwhelming majority of the Jewish public prefers the hegemony of the right and also believes this hegemony would continue if new elections were to be held soon. In the Arab public, 58% would want a left-wing or center-left government (26.5% do not know) to take office, but only 10% expect that this would happen if elections were to be held in the near future.

Democracy in action.

^ 

  

This Month's Peace Index Poll

From The Peace Index: January 2017 -

Expanding the construction in Judea and Samaria/the West Bank:
...Fifty percent think or are sure that it is unwise to expand construction at present, compared to 45% who think or are sure that the opposite is the case. A segmentation of the responses by political camp reveals, as expected, that positions on this issue reflect interviewees’ political location on the right-left diplomatic-security spectrum. A segmentation by voting in the latest Knesset elections shows that the party whose voters most strongly support expanded construction is Torah Judaism (83%). But among voters for Kulanu, which is also part of the current coalition, the majority (58%) opposes expanding the building in the territories. As for the Arab public, a clear majority opposes expanding construction (78%).

Annexing parts of Judea and Samaria/the West Bank:
...A small majority (53%) thinks or is sure that the new situation should not be exploited to annex, at this moment, large parts of the territories. At the same time, slightly more than a third (37%) takes the opposite view. Most of the support for annexation comes, not surprisingly, from those who define themselves as right-wing in diplomatic-security terms (and they constitute 52% of the Jewish public). Even in this camp, however, one cannot speak of wall-to-wall agreement on annexation. As on the issue of expanding construction, on annexation as well the strongest support comes from Torah Judaism voters (72%). The Arab public opposes annexation at the same rate that it opposes expanding construction.

Rights for Palestinians in case the territories are annexed: 
...Only one-fourth (24.5%) hold the view that, if the territories are annexed, the Palestinians should be given citizenship. The rest are divided between those who think they should be given “the status of residents, which is less than citizenship—for example, they would not be allowed to vote in elections” (30%) and those who think “they should not be given any status beyond what they have now” (31.5%). Interestingly, among those defining themselves as left or moderate left only a small majority (55%) thinks that, in case of annexation, the Palestinians should be granted Israeli citizenship. Indeed, as the figure shows, this question apparently embarrassed the left: the rate who declined to answer it or did not know the answer was very high. In the center, about a third say that if the territories are annexed the Palestinians should be given citizenship, while on the right, on average, only about 10% take that view. In the Arab public 62% favor granting citizenship to the Palestinians in territories annexed—if they are annexed—to Israel.  

^ 

What Israelis Are Thinking

From the December 2016 Peace Index Poll

The cause of the Security Council’s condemnatory resolution: hostility to Israel: A small majority of the Jewish public (53%) thinks that the condemnatory resolution on settlement building in the territories that the UN Security Council recently adopted stemmed mainly from hostility to Israel. Only 28.5% said it stemmed mainly from a principled position in keeping with international law. A segmentation by political camp reveals that on the right as a whole and in the center, the majority ascribed the resolution to hostility to Israel (right—64%, moderate right—64%, center—45%, compared to 40% who thought otherwise).

and

Israel should not refrain from building in the wake of the Security Council resolution: To the question “In the wake of the Security Council’s condemnatory resolution, in your opinion should or should not Israel cease the construction in the territories?” 62% of the Jewish public replied that the building should continue

and

The building in the territories will continue under Trump: Seventy-one percent of the Jewish public assesses that under the Trump administration Israel will be able to keep building in the settlements

and

One state can be both democratic and Jewish: A majority of the Jewish public (58%) rejects U.S. secretary of state Kerry’s assertion in his recent speech that if there is no two-state solution and “the choice is one state, Israel can either be Jewish or democratic—it cannot be both.” 

Israelis Polled: Keep Judea and Samaria

From the October 2016 Peace Index poll:-

...a majority of the Jewish public (53.5%) are sure or think that the status quo between Israel and the Palestinians can keep going for a long time. Forty-one percent are sure or think the opposite. On the left only a minority (about a third) believes the situation can continue as it is, while on the right there is a majority of more than half.


In the Jewish public, among those who think the current situation cannot continue, 47% expect that the stalemate will end because international pressure will be exerted on Israel to end its control of the territories, 20% assess that a Palestinian uprising will erupt, and 10% think Israel will annex Judea and Samaria/the West Bank. A total of 7.5% chose other possibilities that would bring an end to the stalemate. A particularly high rate (15.5%) does not know what will happen.


...Another question that was asked in this context was: “In light of the situation, are you for or against annexing all of Judea and Samaria/the West Bank to the state of Israel?” In the Jewish public the highest rate (46%) favored annexation, compared to an only slightly lower rate (42%) who expressed opposition to it. Whereas on the left and in the center there was, as expected, only a minority of supporters of annexation, among those who defined themselves as right-wingers there was a majority of supporters for it in light of the existing situation...

^

June Poll on Future of Judea and Samaria

From
The Peace Index: June 2016:

The settlements and the national interest: We opened with a general question: “Sometime after the Six Day War the settlement enterprise began to develop. In your opinion, from a perspective of 50 years later, has the settlement enterprise contributed to or damaged Israel’s national interest?” We found that a majority (52%) of the Jewish public thinks the settlement enterprise has contributed to the national interest. 

...We asked: “Some claim that over the years Israeli governments have invested many resources and monies in developing the Jewish settlements and infrastructures in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria, and previously also in Gaza, at the expense of other areas and populations in Israel that are disadvantaged and would have needed these resources and budgets. Others claim that there is no connection between the two because one does not come at the expense of the other. With which claim do you agree?” Here the Jewish public is divided, with a slight advantage for those who say there is no connection between investments in the territories and the lack of resources for socioeconomic problems besetting deprived areas and disadvantaged populations. (The investment in the territories comes at the expense of budgets for deprived areas and disadvantaged populations—45%; there is no connection between the two—49%.) 

What is the Green Line? We asked: “In your opinion, is the following sentence true or not true: the Green Line is the Israeli border that was set in the Armistice Agreements that were signed at the end of the War of Independence between Israel and the Arab armies in 1949.” The responses show that a bit less than half of the Jewish public are sure (15%) or think (33%) that this definition is right, while 39% are sure or think that it is not (13% did not know or declined to answer). That is, only a very small minority of the Jewish public now knows for certain what the Green Line is! However, it turned out that a clear majority (63%) of the Arab interviewees knew what the Green Line is, of whom 42% were sure of it.

Because the Green Line is erased.

What is the size of the Jewish population and of the Palestinian population in the territories? A majority of the Jewish public also does not know for sure the size of the Jewish or of the Palestinian population in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria. We asked how many Jews live in these territories (not counting the neighborhoods of expanded Jerusalem such as Gilo or Pisgat Ze’ev). About one-fourth gave an underestimation of 100,000-250,000, 30% answered correctly that the number is 250,000-500,000, 13% gave an overestimation of 500,000-750,000, 3% thought the correct number was 750,000 to a million, and about one-fourth did not know at all. Regarding the Palestinian population (not counting Jerusalem), the estimates were: 24%—half a million to a million, 36%—one to two million, only 10%—two million to three million (the accepted evaluation in Israel), 3%—over three million. The rest (again 27%) did not know. That is, the Jewish public underestimates the size of the Palestinian population in the territories. It turns out, then, that the Jewish public’s assessments of the current situation in the territories, and of what will happen in the future, are based to a large extent on a lack of knowledge of the facts and on incorrect estimates of the relative sizes of the populations there.

And if they knew the facts?  More support.

Frequency of visits/trips in the territories: Among those who answered that they do not live in the territories and do not have family members there, 52% responded that they had not visited or taken a trip in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria during the last five years. Thirty-three percent said they had visited or taken a trip there once in a while, while only 13.5% responded that they had visited or taken a trip there frequently.

In other words, imagine how more support would be if they visited.

Would it be desirable to hold a referendum on the issue of leaving the territories?
A majority of the Jews (59%) and an even larger majority of the Arabs (73%) would favor holding a referendum on the issue of leaving the territories if, in the future, there were to be progress in talks with the Palestinians leading to a draft peace agreement that would be acceptable to the Israeli government.

Voting if a referendum were to be held in Israel today on the question of leaving the territories: We asked: “If a referendum were to be held in Israel today on whether, in principle, it is desirable to remain, as at present, in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria or to leave it while retaining the large settlement blocs, how would you vote?” A majority (52%) of the Jewish interviewees reported that in the existing situation they would vote against a withdrawal, while 36% answered that they would vote in favor. Among the Arabs a majority (69%) said that if a referendum were to be held today, they would vote in favor of leaving the territories while retaining the large settlement blocs.

Voting if there were to be a referendum based on a draft peace agreement: A slightly different distribution, almost even, would emerge if the Jewish public were to vote in a referendum in a situation where a draft agreement with the Palestinians was on the table. At present, 46% say they would vote against a withdrawal from the West Bank/Judea and Samaria, whereas 43% say they would vote in favor. Among the Arabs, the rate of voters favoring a withdrawal would exceed three-fourths...A large minority (44%) believe that only the Jewish citizens of the country would be entitled to participate in it.

...And what is the likely situation in the territories in the future? The prevailing view among the Jewish public (37.5%) is that the situation will continue as it is. Twenty percent hold the view that the international community will force Israel to withdraw to the 1967 borders. An identical rate thinks Israel will annex the territories without giving the Palestinians equal rights to those of the Israelis, and 9% anticipate that Israel will annex the territories and grant equal rights to the Palestinians. In the Arab public the most common assessment (45%) is that the situation will remain as it is. 

And what is the desirable situation in the territories in the future? Here 23% of the Jewish public prefers that the situation should remain as it is, 12% prefer the intervention of the international community, 32% prefer annexation without giving equal rights to the Palestinians, and 19% prefer annexation that includes the granting of equal rights. In other words, a majority of the Jewish public (55%) prefers continued Israeli rule over the Palestinians, whether it means sustaining the existing situation or annexation without giving equal rights to the Palestinians. Only few support a return to the 1967 borders or a one-state solution in which equal rights are given to Israelis and Palestinians. The most common preference in the Arab public is that the international community should force Israel to withdraw (34%), followed immediately by the preference that the situation should remain as it is (33%). Naturally, only very few (3%) would like to see an annexation without the giving of equal rights to the Palestinians; neither, though, is there any great desire (only 26%) for a one-state solution with equal rights for Jews and Palestinians.

Did they employ 'West Bank' for Arabs and Judea/Samaria for Jews - or what?

^

Another Poll: It's Not An "Occupation"

From the April 2016 Peace Index:

The negotiations with the Palestinians and their goals: The Jewish public is divided on whether it is currently appropriate or inappropriate to renew the political negotiations with the Palestinians, though the rate of those who think the present time is inopportune (49%) is a bit higher than the rate who think the opposite (44%). When it comes to the goals of the negotiations, however, it turns out that the distribution of opinions is much clearer. On the question “Which of the following two things is more important to you: that a peace agreement be reached with the Palestinians or that the Palestinians recognize Israel as the state of the Jewish people?,” 48% of the Jews regarded Palestinian recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people as more important than reaching peace (only 27.5% preferred that goal). Sixteen percent answered that the two goals are important to the same extent, and 6% responded on their own initiative that neither of the two is important to them. These findings apparently show that, in the view of the majority of the Jewish public, Palestinian recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people is a necessary (though not necessarily sufficient) condition for reaching a peace agreement. We found an even clearer distribution of opinions on the question of what is more important: that Israel have a Jewish majority or that Israel be the sole sovereign in all of the historical Land of Israel. Fifty-two percent responded that it was more important to them that the state have a Jewish majority, with only 22% opting for sovereignty over the entire Land of Israel as more important (for 19% the two objectives are important to the same extent).

and

Is there an occupation? In this context it is interesting to sere the unequivocal slant of the public’s positions on the question of whether it is right or not right to define Israel’s control of the West Bank/Judea and Samaria as an “occupation”: a large majority of the Jewish public (71.5%) believes it is not an “occupation”! Exactly that rate in the Arab public thinks the opposite.

^

Chances of Right-Wing Bloc in Poll

From the latest Peace Index Poll

and also this comment:

Two weeks before the elections, 61% believe the right-wing bloc’s chances are greater (compared to 59% who thought so in January and 60% in December). Assessments of the center-left bloc’s chances were less stable, with a downward trend—22% in the latest survey compared to 27.5% and 24% in the previous ones, so that in the last month the gap in favor of the right-wing bloc (39%) was the largest. However, on the question “Which bloc would you want to form the government after the upcoming elections?” a different tendency emerged. Over the past three months the gap between the two blocs has diminished considerably, from 22% favoring the right-wing camp in December to 15% in January and 13% in February. In other words, while the gap has indeed narrowed, when it comes to the preference of the Jewish public the scale still tips rightward, and with so little time remaining before the elections the chances of a dramatic change in the center-left’s favor are small. Interestingly, the largest share of the Arab public (43.5%) goes to those unable to assess which bloc—right or center-left—has the better chance to form a government. Meanwhile there is a clear preference here for a government headed by the center-left: 48% compared to only 11% who would rather see a right-wing government.

Opinion Trending

Who is better suited to deal with the key issues of the election campaign?: The rate of Jewish Israelis who think a government headed by Netanyahu is better suited to deal with issues of Israeli security (57.5%) is considerably higher than the rate who view a government headed by Tzipi Livni and Isaac Herzog as better suited to this task (27%). Similarly, a clear majority of the Jewish public (59%) estimates that the right-wing bloc has a better chance to form the government after the elections than the center-left bloc (27.5%). A segmentation of the Jewish interviewees’ responses to this question shows that among those planning to vote for the right-wing parties, an overwhelming majority are sure that the government will be formed by the right. Among voters for the center-left parties, however, in cases where a majority believes the government will be formed by the parties they plan to vote for, the majority is much smaller (indeed, among the interviewees who are planning to vote for Meretz, we found that the rate of those who expect the next government to be formed by the right-wing bloc is larger than the rate who think it will be formed by the center-left bloc—54% vs. 42% respectively).

Indeed, when the question is “Which bloc would you want to form the government after the coming elections?” the gap between the preferences for the two blocs narrows a bit, but here too the right-wing bloc has a clear lead over the center-left bloc (53% prefer the former, 38% the latter).

The Peace Index

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Peace Gets 9% Support

From the latest Peace Index:

The desired national order of priorities: Among the five issues presented to the interviewees, highest on the scale of priorities is reducing the socioeconomic gaps (47%); after it comes creating housing solutions at affordable prices (21%). In other words, the public prefers the two issues of a socioeconomic nature (69% combined) over the other three issues, all of which belong to the security-political area: increasing Israel’s military power (10%), improving its diplomatic status in the international arena, and achieving a peace agreement with the Palestinians (9% in both cases).

And more:

As for the developments on the Palestinian issue:
The risk posed by the Fatah-Hamas agreement: A considerable majority of the Jewish public (57.5%) sees the reconciliation agreement that was signed between Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas as very dangerous or moderately dangerous for Israel. Likewise, 57.5% reject the claim that the reconciliation makes Abbas’s representation of the Palestinians more inclusive and, therefore, if an agreement with Israel is signed it will be more valid.

The halt in the negotiations with the Palestinians: Given these views, it comes as no surprise that a large majority (68%) of the Jewish public backs the government’s decision to stop the negotiations with the Palestinians in response to the reconciliation agreement. ... At the same time, the public is divided on whether the freeze in the negotiations is beneficial or harmful to Israel in the short term and the long term, with slightly more seeing it as more harmful both in the short (41%-36%) and long (40%-34%) terms. 

^ 

And The Public Thinks That ...

According to The Peace Index of March 2014 (Published: 08/04/2014; Survey dates: 30/03/2014 - 31/03/2014) the opinions they polled were as follows:

Chances for success of the U.S.-sponsored negotiations – ...92% viewing the chances as very low or moderately low. Such a consensus indicates that the feeling is common to all the political camps. Indeed, a segmentation of the responses by self-affiliation with one or another political camp revealed 95% of the right seeing low chances for success, 88.5% of the center, and 87% of the left. In the Arab public as well, the majority sees scant likelihood of the talks’ success, though at 62% this majority is clearly smaller than in the Jewish public.

The urgency for Israel of reaching an agreement – ...A small majority of the Jewish public (52%) believes it is very urgent or moderately urgent, while 45.5% say reaching an agreement is not at all or not very urgent from Israel’s standpoint...

Yaalon’s criticism of the U.S. administration – ...The responses show a Jewish public evenly divided between those who think his statements could cause such damage (46.5%) and those who do not (49%). The public is much more unequivocal on whether Yaalon was right in saying the United States is showing weakness in its foreign policy; the majority (65%) is sure or thinks he is right. At the same time, a clear majority (72%) believes Yaalon was unwise to voice his criticism publicly...a pragmatic attitude.

^

A Very Negative Oslo/Pro-Eretz Yisrael 53%

There's a new poll, conducted by Maagor Mochot and commissioned by Ma'ariv and the results are, after finding out that but 73% of the public knows what are the "Oslo Accords", that

57% believe that the Oslo agreements were injurious to Israel from a political, security and economic viewpoint and that 53% would not vote today in favor of an agreement that includes a withdrawal from Judea and Samaria, even if the Palestinians would recognize Israel as a Jewish state and give up the right of return.

The graphics:

which indicate further that 40% were pro-Oslo at the time while 33% claimed to be against and that 62% haven't changed their minds, with 3% saying they are now for and 11% admitting they are now against.


Remember all, first 20th anniversary marking, in another week.


_____________________________

UPDATE

IMRA adds another poll's results:

New Wave Poll: 79.7%:6.25 Permanent agreement will not be reached


The survey was conducted by New Wave for Yisrael Hayom 15 August 2013 and published on 16 August.

Are you for or against release of prisoners are a gesture for the start of negotiations with the Palestinians?

For 14.2% 
Against 77.5% 
Don't know 8.3%

Will a final agreement be reached this time that will end the conflict between the sides?

Yes 6.2% 
No 79.7% 
Don't know 14.1%

More on that:

Israel Hayom poll: 80% of Jewish Israelis skeptical on peace talks

A new Israel Hayom poll shows that the vast majority of Israeli Jews believe the newly launched talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority are a futile endeavor...Some 79.7% of respondents said the talks would not end with a permanent peace accord that would resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Just 6.2% said such an agreement would be reached, and 14.1% said they had no opinion.

In a similar poll in July, 73.1% said negotiations would not lead to a peace agreement, while only 5.3% said the talks would conclude with a deal, and 21.6% had no opinion.

On the question of whether Israel should have agreed to release prisoners as a goodwill gesture alongside the talks, 77.5% said they opposed the move, while 14.2% said they supported the gesture and 8.3% had no opinion.

The poll was conducted a day after Israel released 26 prisoners as part of its phased release of 104 prisoners.

^

And There's A New Poll and More Opinion Dichotomy

Thanks to Dr. Aaron Lerner of IMRA we now know (in English) that

61% Israelis oppose expected deal with Palestinians

and once again, the dichotomy of Israeli opinion - we want peace and will do all to engage in its making but heck, we don't want a bad peace and don't believe the Arabs want peace - is apparent.

The survey was commissioned by The Orly & Guy Morning Program of Channel 10 TV and conducted by telephone on 22 July.

Results:


Are you for or against Israel entering negotiations with the Palestinians in the wake of the visit of US Secretary of State John Kerry to the region?

Total:
For 59% 
Against 31% 
Other replies 10%
Jews: For 49% Against 41% Other 10%
In principle, are you for or against signing a full peace agreement with the Palestinians on the basis of the 1967 borders, including the exchange of territory and release of prisoners?

Total: 
For 29% 
Against 57% 
Other replies 14%
Jews: For 22% Against 62% Other 16%
Are you for or against signing a peace agreement with the Palestinians on the basis of the 1967 borders, including the evacuation of communities with the exception of settlement blocs, exchange of territory, Palestinians recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish People, and release of Palestinians with "blood on their hands".

Total: 
For 26% 
Against 61% 
Other 13%
Jews: For 18% Against 71% Other 11%


^

Kerry Faces 71% Negativity & 58% No Flexibility

The details are here and the summary follows:

    

The Peace Index: June  2013

Kerry’s chances of success. The overwhelming majority of the Jewish public in Israel does not tend to believe that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s efforts to renew the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will bear fruit. Seventy-one percent see the chances of success as very or moderately low...

The degree of flexibility required of Israel. Whether because they see the chances of Kerry's mission as low or because they have no interest in the renewal of negotiations, the majority of the Jewish public (58%) does not think Israel should show greater flexibility in order to facilitate the resumption of the peace talks...

Who wants a renewal of talks? The prevailing view in the Jewish public (67%) is that the Palestinian Authority does not really want to resume peace talks, while a majority (57%) thinks that the Israeli government wants to resume the talks...

...Netanyahu’s chances of convincing his party of the benefit of the two-state solution...We asked: “In your assessment, will Netanyahu succeed or not succeed in convincing the Likud to support an agreement based on two states?” The responses show that the Jewish public is almost evenly split between those who think Netanyahu will not succeed (45%) and those who think he will (42%).

There's more, of course.

^

From Pathetic to Pessimistic

Findings from this:-

Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, June 2013

conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, supported by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem.
 

- Only 27% of the Palestinians and 10% of the Israelis think that the two sides will return to negotiations and violence will stop while 34% of the Israelis and 31% of the Palestinians believe that negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue as well. 

-  44% of the Israelis and 15% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and armed attacks will not stop 

-  21% of the Palestinians believe that the two sides will not return to negotiations but that violence will not resume.
-  57% of Palestinians think that Israel’s goals in the long run are to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens

-  25% of the Arabs think the goals are to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the Palestinians.

-  37% of the Israelis think that the Palestinian aspirations in the long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel

- 17% of the Israeli think the goals of the Palestinians are to conquer the State of Israel.

Main findings there.

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The Peace Gap

As Aaron Lerner notes, one question in this poll is wrongly wordly but first, the poll:

New Wave Poll:  

56.9%:28.6% Support talks but 55.4%:30.9% deal impossible
Do you support renewing the negotiations with the Palestinians?
Support 56.9%; Oppose 28.6%; Don't know 14.5%
Do you believe it is possible to reach a permanent arrangement?
No 55.4%; Yes 30.9%;  Don't know 13.7%
Do you support the Palestinian approach, namely release of prisoners, easing movement, etc.?
Support 19.6%; Oppose 69.3%; Don't know 11.1%
Assuming the negotiations are renewed, what should Israel refuse to concede on?
[AL: the wording of this question is problematic as forces the respondent to pick one thing]
Right of return 30.3%; Division of Jerusalem 35.5%; Settlement blocs 7.0%; All the territories 17.6%; Don't know 9.7%

What puzzles me is how can 7% seek not to yield the "settlement blocs" and yet 17.6% do not wish to return all of the territories?

Does that mean they accept the Arab definition of "occupation" as including all of Jerusalem?  And that would reflect the par?

But at least Jerusalem is still the highest priority.

And again, the peculiarity of Israel's public opinion on peace is evident - they are "for" but pessimistic about its chances.

But are they "for" because no one wants to be "against" or they genuinely feel that peace is a benefit, is good and a worthy goal?

^

A Poll You Can Believe In

Poll commissioned by Israel Radio by Geocartography of a representative
sample of adult Israelis (including Arabs) carried out the week of 2 January 2013:

Do you support or oppose the concept that the establishment of two states is
the solution to the conflict with the Palestinians?

Support 40%

Oppose 45%

No reply 14%


(k/t=IMRA)

^