Oh, Oh. Iran. The Bomb. Scenarios

Not only does the author expect proliferation across the Middle East, but he also envisions an Iranian bomb finding its way into Israel sooner rather than later

on a new book, "Iran, Les Choix des Armes?" (Iran: The Choice of Arms?) by François Heisbourg (*)

And I am not subscribed.

But I found this:

Want to know how a U.S. strike on a newly nuclearized Iran might actually work? Turn to page 154 of Francois Heisbourg's extraordinary new book, Iran, the Choice of Arms, published in Paris but, alas, not yet in the English-speaking world.

It's frightening, but as accurate as only an insider's insider can possibly be--down to the actual weapons America might launch and their impact on the military machine and civilian infrastructure and population of the nation that is perhaps the world's most dangerous and unpredictable power.

In one of three densely conceived, though, the author is careful to warn, utterly fictitious scenarios, President Bush launches Operation Boundless Fortitude after Iran's religious leader Ali Khameini announces baldly that his nation has manufactured weapons-grade fissionable material enriched to nearly 100% (in lieu of 5% enrichment for peaceful nuclear reactors).

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(*)
Francois Heisbourg is currently Chairman, Foundation Council of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and head of the interagency working group on the teaching of international relations, strategic affairs, and defence issues in France. He is a former Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), London, International security adviser to the French Minister of Defence, First Secretary at the French Permanent Mission to the U.N, and Member of the French Foreign Ministry's Policy Planning Staff. He is a Founding member of the French-German Commission on Security and Defence, on the board of the Aspen lnstitute Berlin and has also served in the Thomson-CSF and MATRA defense firms. He is an international recognized expert on international security, non-proliferation, and disarmament issues and his books include The Future of Warfare, European Defence: Making It Work, The Shape of the New Europe, Allied Divided: Transatlantic Policies for the Greater Middle East, and Nuclear Weapons in a Transformed World