Monday, December 30, 2013

A Two-State Pitfall and Disaster

I oppose a two-state solution.  One reason is that it is actually a four-state solution: Israel, Gaza, Judea & Samaria (aka, 'West Bank') and Jordan all in historic Palestine.  Three Arab states vs. one Jewish Israel.

Motti Kedar thinks of an 8 state solution*.

And here is what will play out in our neck of the woods if the two-state solution will happen:

The BBC's James Copnall says aid workers fear a humanitarian crisis in S Sudan
There are conflicting reports from South Sudan where youths loyal to rebel leader Riek Machar are said to be marching on the strategic town of Bor.  In an interview with the BBC, a spokesman for President Salva Kiir denied earlier reports that most of the youths had been persuaded to go home.  Instead, Ateny Wek Ateng said the group had clashed with government forces.
At least 1,000 people have died in this month's fighting. More than 121,600 are believed to have fled their homes.
...The White Army [because of the white ash they put on their skin to protect them from insects] is a name that inspires fear in South Sudan.   This loose grouping of armed youth from the Nuer ethnic group was at least partly responsible for the 1991 Bor massacre, in which at least 2,000 people were killed.  Then, the White Army fought alongside Riek Machar, who had split away from the main southern Sudanese rebel group fighting Khartoum.  In 2011 and 2012 a new incarnation of the White Army went on the rampage, killing hundreds of civilians from the Murle ethnic group.
...Tens of thousands of civilians have sought refuge in UN camps, and reinforcements have been arriving to give them extra protection.
What began as a power struggle between Mr Machar and President Salva Kiir has taken on overtones of an ethnic conflict. The Dinka, to which Mr Kiir belongs, are pitted against the Nuer, from which Mr Machar hails.
...UK Foreign Secretary William Hague...said he had encouraged them "to enter into negotiations immediately and without preconditions" and offered the UK's diplomatic support.
...South Sudanese government spokesmen were quoted as saying the group numbered as many as 25,000 armed men..."They seem to be adamant because they think that if they don't come and fight, then the pride of their tribe has been put in great insult," he said..."They are a wildcard whose intervention in the theatre of conflict outside Bor could ratchet up the conflict even further."

Hamas vs. Fatah.

Islamic Jihad vs. Hamas.

Salafists vs. Islamic Jihad.

Hezbollah vs. everyone.

Al-Rub vs. Rajoub.

A recipe for disaster this two-state solution idea.


Dr. Kedar brought to the discussion a different idea. There are two concerns we have, he said: One is to prevent a Palestinian Arab state from coming into existence, as it would be severely problematic. On the other hand, we want to ensure a very large Jewish majority..

...What he proposes is a sociological/anthropological solution: an Eight-state Solution. There are different Arab clans that are alive and well in this area. The problem is when there are multiple clans or tribes — multiple ethnic and religious groups — inside one political entity. This is the problem in Iraq, and if there were a Palestinian state, we would see a situation like that of Iraq. Quiet is possible when a political entity is controlled by one clan or tribe only. This is the way it is in the Arab Emirates.

What Kedar suggests is that emirates based on individual clans or tribes be established in Judea and Samaria: they would be city-states. Each major Palestinian Arab city is controlled by a clan or tribe. The leaders of these clans know what to do, and what not to do, and it is this indigenous leadership and not PLO leadership that we should be dealing with. There wouldn’t be formal peace agreements, but rather understandings that generate a condition of quiet — a modus vivendi.

The city-states Kedar envisions are Jenin, Tulkarem, Shechem, Kalkilya, Jericho, Ramallah, and the Arab part of Hevron. Such small states do exist now, he says, in places like the Vatican and Gibraltar. He sees this as viable if some area for industrial development is included.


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