Monday, December 31, 2012

Are You Poll Fooled?

Fooled by this poll*?

Poll: Most right-wing Israelis would support Palestinian state, division of Jerusalem

The principles of the agreement as presented to respondents were for two states - Israel for the Jewish people and Palestine for the Palestinians, with Palestinian refugees having the right to return only to their new country.

BTW, Molad, the group behind this latest left-wing progressive poll, is a regurgitation other Israel-bashing bullies such as Breaking the Silence, Sheikh Jarah Solidarity, et al. with Avrum Burg which 'merits' the worship of Haaretz providing their headline status.

But didn't we just read that 67% of Israelis won't divide Jerusalem?  
And didn't we read this:

The May (five months ago!) data is from Tel Aviv University's Walter Lebach Institute for Jewish-Arab Coexistence... Some findings:
- 80 percent of Israelis don't believe it's possible to make peace with the Palestinians. Half of them don't believe it's ever possible to make peace, while half don't believe it's possible in the foreseeable future. About two-thirds support a diplomatic solution, but many more still eagerly buy the convenient argument that there's no partner.

- only about 20 percent of secular Jews see the demographic threat as an existential problem and only one-third believe the occupation and the settlements are creating a security threat to Israel.
- nearly half the respondents consider Palestinian terror a major security problem;
- Within the Green Line, the number who consider themselves rightists or right-leaning has increased from 41 percent to 48 percent...

Previously in 2008, there was this:

Two-thirds of Israelis support a total or partial resumption of building communities in Judea and Samaria, according to a poll broadcast on Wednesday, as peace talks are due to restart in Washington.

Israpundit reminds us of this one this past June:

A new poll shows a solid majority of Israelis – 64% – supports the continuation of the settlement enterprise in Judea and Samaria. The remaining 36% support a temporary freeze on Jewish construction there or a complete freeze of construction. While these numbers are unchanged from last year, this year’s poll shows a small increase compared to last year in the percentages of Israelis who think Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria is a “truly Zionist deed” (64%) and that Judea and Samaria are the country’s security belt (57%)
You should be interested in this late 2010 survey in which respondents were asked (among many others) the following two questions:

“If during peace talks, Israel succeeds in reaching a permanent peace with the Palestinians that is backed by the United States and includes the evacuation of all of the settlements in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria, in your opinion, should Israel sign or not sign such an agreement?”

And “if it includes only the evacuation of the settlements and territories […] that are outside the large settlement blocs, since the large blocs would remain in Israeli hands, in your opinion should Israel sign or not sign the agreement?”

The answers:

A large majority (72%) favors such negotiations, but only 33% think they are likely to bear fruit.   Is there a price for extending the construction freeze? A clear majority (74%) supports Netanyahu’s demand that the Palestinian leadership recognize Israel as the state of the Jewish people as a condition for extending the building freeze in the settlements...

Is there a price for peace? In return for a permanent peace with the Palestinians backed by the United States, half of the Jewish public are willing to evacuate settlements that lie beyond the large settlement blocs (a minority of 43% oppose this). However, only a minority (28%) thinks Israel should sign such an agreement and pay for it by evacuating all of the settlements in the territories (a majority of 65% oppose such an evacuation).

This past Aprilin response to a question about the urgency of achieving Israeli-Palestinian peace,

58% of the Jewish respondents and 51% of the Arab respondents defined the issue as urgent or very urgent. At the same time, 58% of the Jewish interviewees and 61% of the Arab ones saw no chance of ending the conflict in accordance with the "two states for two peoples" formula at the present time.

And earlier in January, it was found that

a large majority (76%) preferring that Israel remain a country with a Jewish majority, with one-quarter preferring that Israel continue to rule all of the Land of Israel west of the Jordan. Asked how they would respond if they knew that "continued Israeli rule over the West Bank would lead to one state for Jews and Arabs in the entire Land of Israel that would not have a Jewish majority,” the majority (63%) answered that in this case they would oppose continued rule in the territories. However, the majority (54%) did not agree with the claim that continued rule in the territories will result in a country without a Jewish majority. Some 54% believe that continued rule in the territories will not prevent Israel from remaining a Jewish and democratic state. In other words, the public indeed prefers that Israel be a Jewish state over continued rule over the whole Land of Israel, but most of it does not believe there is a contradiction between the two objectives.

And I've collected comments:
So according to the poll, Israel is ready to make peace if the Arabs will implement their agreements...When can we expect the obvious follow-up polls measuring how willing the Arabs are to implement what is necessary to make all this happen?
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What the poll shows is that Israelis from left to right all want peace..Perhaps the reason that more Israelis have turned to the right is because of what the poll doesn't show...What the poll does not show is how the same number of Arabs feel; no recognition of Israel as a Jewish state.  No agreement without the right of return.  Nothing doing without Jerusalem as their capital. No respect for other religions or their holy places.  And the list goes on. The last two decades of concessions, autonomy, expulsion of Jews from their homes, arming the Palestinian police, just to name a few of the major 'efforts' Israel has made, have resulted in a real peace being further than ever and an Israel on probation in the eyes of the world.   That giving up land makes our enemies more intransigent, not less.  And coexistence?  Nary a peep about that anymore.

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I bet if there was a poll that asked Israelis whether they would support 3 states, so long as it brought peace, they would get the same percentage supporting, so too with 4 states. etc.  Offer peace, Israelis support it - in theory, because that's as far as they will get to real peace.  

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The only point in publishing polls that aren't grounded in reality is to create a false narrative. I think that's why so many object to the Haaretz - Abraham poll. It's propaganda. 

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As for the Arabs:

·         the results of the present poll show that respondents are divided on the issue of a two-state solution, with 47 percent supporting and 50 percent opposing. Support for a two-state solution is higher in Gaza (51 percent) than in the West Bank (44 percent).

(k/t=Yishai K)

                Thanks to Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA we have an analysis based on the poll's data.

Well, take a look at what the pollsters are asking. There's a trick to it. Notice the loophole:  "implementation would take place only after the Palestinians would fulfill all their commitments with an emphasis on fighting terror"

If you haven't figured it out yet, here is the obvious question that the pollsters didn't ask:  "Do you think, if Israel accepted this deal, that the Palestinians would fulfill all their commitments?"

...So who is right about the real thinking of the Israeli street?  The folks commissioning a poll that declines to actually figure out what the public is really thinking or yours truly?  Well consider this result from a poll of Israelis interviewed by phone between December 9 and 13, 2012 in a poll planned and supervised by Prof.
Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University 60% of Israelis think the Palestinians want to conquer Israel (42% also kill most of the Jews & 18% not necessary kill the Jews)

And this Dahaf poll of Jews the end of November 2012 commissioned by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs: Would a withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the division of Jerusalem bring about an end of the conflict? Yes 15% No 83%

No. The Israeli street doesn't think that pigs can fly.

New Polls on Israeli Public Opinion
December 2012
Positions  of the Israeli Public Regarding a Possible Peace Agreement
The S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace


See this.


Channel 2 Poll: 70%:25% Not possible to reach solution to the dispute with the Palestinians in the near future
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA   31 December 2012

Poll of Israeli adults (including Arabs) carried out the week of 31 December for Israel Television Channel 2 and broadcast on 31 December.

How do you classify yourself politically? [the figures do not add to 100%! apparently the folks at Channel 2 don't bother to proofread]

Right 48% Center 28% Left 26% Don't know 5%

What party loyally represents the Right in Israel? [Asked before report that PM Netanyahu to stand by Bar Ilan Address on Palestinian state]
Bayit Yehudi 33% Likud-Beiteinu 32% Otzma Leyisrael 16% Shas 2%

Is it possible to reach a solution to the dispute with the Palestinians in the near future?
Yes 25% No 70% Don't know 5%


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