Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Proportionate Peace Now

From a recent Peace Now advert:



It claims only 4% of Israel's population is "settler" and that "Israel is returning to proper proportions".

Let's check that.

According to Yakov Faitelson, there are 360,000 Jewish residents in Judea and Samaria.  That represents 4.6% of Israel's general population or 6.1% of the Jewish population.  According to how the Arabs and the rest of the world see things, that is that Jerusalem's new neighborhoods are also "occupied territory", then the number of Jews is 560,000 (at least, since at the end of 2010 I counted at least 200,000).  That brings the number of Jewish residents beyond the Green Line to 7% of the Israel's general population and 9.4% of the Jewish population.  In the pastt 12 years, the median growth rate of J & S's Jewish population has been 5.5% annually versus 1/7% of the Israel's Jewish population.

Now, consider that the kibbutz population is 140,000 which represents 1.8% of Israel's general population or 2.4% of Israel's Jewish population.  If we include Peace Now's support from the non-kibbutz population, their Knesset representation is exactly their percentage in the country, 2.5% barely.

That is what Peace Now needs to absorb - that they are a fairly negligible minority which, according to their own logic, should be ignored and should have no influence on Israel's policies.

Last year in January, the Knesset's research unit published a demographic report which found that Arnon Sofer and Sergio Della Pergola claim that at the end of 2010 the Jewish population of Israel without Judea and Samaria was 75.4% and without J & S, Israel's Jewish population is 53%.  The Arab population of J & S is 3.8 million according to their work, without Jerusalem,whereas the AEI Zimmerman, Ettinger, at al. study places it as 2.85 million, one million Arabs less.


If PN wants to be really pessimistic, well, there's this:

In another 50 years, Israel’s total population will be 23%-40% ultra-Orthodox, according to a forecast by the Central Bureau of Statistics commissioned by the Finance Ministry's budget division.

And here's Yoram Ettinger's summary as for YESHA:

...the Jewish majority west of the Jordan River has been robust and long-term since the 1960s – 66% without Gaza and 57% including Gaza – compared with a 33% minority in 1947 and an 8% minority in 1900. Arab population growth rate has declined steadily in Judea & Samaria due to diminished fertility rate and (primarily) due to high net-emigration (well over 10,000 annually since 1950 and escalating recently).  The annual number of Jewish births has increased by 56% since 1995, while the annual number of Arab births has stabilized during the same period. Within the “Green Line,” the decline in Arab fertility rate is due to a most successful integration into Israel’s infrastructures of employment, education, medicine, finance, politics, sports, arts, etc.!  For the first time since 1948, there is a convergence between Jewish and Arab fertility rates in Jerusalem, while Arabs trend downward and Jews upward.

If you are worried, though, here's something demographic, from 2007, p. 51:

According to the data of the Israeli Ministry of Interior for the years 1993–2003, over this period 150,737 Arabs from Judea, Samaria, the Gaza Strip and Jordan obtained permanent resident status in the State of Israel as part of a process of “family unification” with citizens of Israel, and were added to the yearly growth of the Arab population86. This status provides them with full civil rights, aside from the right to vote in elections for the Knesset and the right to carry an Israeli passport.
and on p. 53

the Arab citizens of the State of Israel are likely to number 1,949,433 people by 2025. This result is not far from the forecast of the Israeli Bureau of Statistics in 2004, according to which Arab Israelis may number 2,122,100 people in 2025. According to these two alternative forecasts, the number of Arab Israeli citizens may reach 2,281,312 by 2050. 

Incidentally, read this.

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UPDATE

Now this appeared:


"Only .00004% of Israel's population is represented by Peace Now so why does the media present them as the largest party in the Knesset?  Israel returns to proper proportions!"

Great.


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