The Diminishing Demographic Dimension

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Muslim birth rate falls worldwide

Report says after 2000's 'youth bulge', Muslim population growth to decline over next two decades; 23% of Israel's population will be Muslim by 2030

Falling birth rates will slow the world's Muslim population growth over the next two decades, reducing it on average from 2.2% a year in 1990-2010 to 1.5% a year from now until 2030, a new study says.

Muslims will number 2.2 billion by 2030 compared to 1.6 billion in 2010, making up 26.4% of the world population compared to 23.4% now, according to estimates by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life.

The report did not publish figures for worldwide populations of other major religions, but said the United States-based Pew Forum planned similar reports on growth prospects for worldwide Christianity, Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism and Judaism.

"The declining growth rate is due primarily to falling fertility rates in many Muslim-majority countries," it said, noting the birth rate is falling as more Muslim women are educated, living standards rise and rural people move to cities.

"Globally, the Muslim population is forecast to grow at about twice the rate of the non-Muslim population over the next two decades - an average annual growth rate of 1.5% for Muslims, compared with 0.7% for non-Muslims," it said.

The report, entitled The Future of the Global Muslim Population, was part of a Pew Forum program analyzing religious change and its impact on societies around the world.

And as I have been noting for the past two decades, our demographic situation here is affected by two major factors:

• Fertility rates in Muslim-majority countries are closely related to women's education levels. In the eight Muslim-majority countries where girls generally receive the fewest years of schooling, the average fertility rate (5.0 children per woman) is more than double the average rate (2.3 children per woman) in the nine Muslim-majority countries where girls generally receive the most years of schooling. One exception is the Palestinian territories, where the average fertility rate (4.5 children per woman) is relatively high even though a girl born there today can expect to receive 14 years of formal education.

• Fewer than half (47.8%) of married women ages 15-49 in Muslim-majority countries use some form of birth control. By comparison, in non-Muslim-majority, less-developed countries nearly two-thirds (63.3%) of all married women in that age group use some form of birth control.

There are other factors but here in the Land of Israel, thyese factors are quite potent, and are working in our favor.

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