Sunday, March 25, 2018

Polls, Polsters and the Public

I found this paragraph at the monthly Peace Index Poll for March:

Anticipated effects of moving the American embassy to Jerusalem: The majority of the Jewish public (61%) sees a high chance that moving the American embassy to Jerusalem for Israel’s 70th Independence Day will ignite a violent outbreak against Israel on the Palestinian side (the rate who think so in the Arab public is the same). To those who responded that the chance of violence is high, we posed the question of whether it would, then, be prudent or not for Israel to request that the United States postpone the transfer of the embassy to a different date. The distribution of responses to this question in the Jewish public was clear-cut: 69% think that even in light of the expectation of violence, Israel should not ask the Americans to postpone moving the embassy. In other words, even though the majority sees the situation as combustible, they are against any concession aimed at forestalling possible violence. In the Arab public, the large majority (77.5%) takes exactly the opposite stance, favoring a request to defer the transfer of the embassy.

I wonder:

if I did a poll how did those who responded came even to think there would possibly be violence with one of the options being

Actually, I hadn't thought of it until the Peace Index pollsters asked me

I think more the 50%, at least, would select that reply.


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