Tuesday, January 10, 2012

The Threat of Polls and the Demographic Threat

Alerted by IMRA, I also reviewed the latest Peace Index Poll and particularly the question on demography which they phrase as "A Jewish majority or rule in Judea and Samaria?" and they write:

We asked: In principle, what is more important to you: That Israel be a state with a Jewish majority or that Judea and Samaria always remain under Israel's control even if they are areas with a large Palestinian population? A clear picture emerges: two-thirds of Jewish respondents preferred maintaining the Jewish nature of the state, while less than a fourth (23%) opted for continued rule over all the territories of the Land of Israel that Israel currently holds, complete with their Palestinian population. A segmentation by respondents’ degree of religiosity showed that only among religious Jews does a minority prefer continued control of the territories over ensuring that Israel has a Jewish majority (the rate preferring that Israel have a Jewish majority is 57% for haredi respondents, 32% for religious, 69% for traditional-religious, 79% for traditional-secular, and 70.5% for secular respondents).


And they provide a graph, too:


IMRA's Dr. Lerner notes:

Put another way: let's not allow the demographic data and trends interfere with the last argument left for a Palestinian state, the demographic argument.

By which, I presume, he means, correctly, that in asking a question on the issue of demography, is the respondent supplied with basic information such as "according to studies, the fertility rates of Muslim women are going down...", and further down, or that "the Palestinian Authority data is unreliable...", etc.

A neat trick that is in hiding the other side of the coin.  Jewish majority OR rule in Judea and Samaria?  Why "or"?

Why don't they ever ask a question like:

Data indicates a continuing decrease in Arab births as well as false population data in the area of the Palestinian Authority indicating that the threat of Israel being swamped by a future Arab majority is not as been reported.  In that case, do you believe tthat  Israel should yield areas of Judea and Samaria despite the critical security needs and national heritage links to locations such as Shiloh, Beth-El, Hebron and Elon Moreh?

What do you think the replies would be in that scenario?

So, just who is threatening who - the demography or the pollsters?

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