Trendy Demographics

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The natural increase of Jews, after two decades of maintaining its stable level, continues to grow for the tenth consecutive year. In addition to this phenomenon the immigration to Israel – the Aliyah – began to rise again, and it is accompanied by an increasing number of Israelis returning to Israel after years of residence abroad.

At the same time, over the past ten years the pace of reduction of natural growth of the entire Arab population of Israel has accelerated, while the emigration of Arabs from the Palestinian Authority sharply increased. A continuation of this demographic trend may lead to an increase of the Jewish majority in the total population of the Land of Israel by 2030, and possibly even earlier.

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For over 100 years, ever since the foundation of the Zionist movement, we have been hearing gloomy forecasts announcing demographic catastrophes for the Jews in the Land of Israel.

Despite these forecasts, over the previous 120 years the Jewish population in the Land of Israel managed to grow from 24,000 people, or 5% of the population, to more than 5.5 million people, or 60% of the overall population. The most significant growth comes from a combination of fertility and immigration trends which developed in the Land of Israel.

The demographic behavior of Arabs in the Land of Israel during the last quarter of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21th century matches the "demographic transition" algorithm. The continuation of this transition process, which is related to higher levels of education and increased urbanization, will equalize the natural growth rates of the Arabs and Jews.

Want to read more?

Then read this:

Demographic Trends in the Land of Israel
By Yaakov Faitelson
(updated for December 2009)