Wednesday, July 23, 2014

How Many Civilians Killed in Gaza?

From my friends:

One analysis.

Later analysis.


Wrong counting.  And how they fooled us earlier.

Half are terrorists.  An earlier analysis.

And on human shields.

And on Hamas killing their own civilians.
Another angle:

Numbers, probability, indiscrimination and massacres

Lately I’ve encountered many who claim that the IDF is attacking Palestinians “indiscriminately”. Watching Al Jazeera one can see that the majority of those who were killed in Gaza were young men. This does not go hand in hand with the claim that the killing is random, considering Gaza’s demographics.  With that in mind, yours truly decided to carry out some simple calculations in order to test the claim that the IDF kills combatants and civilians indiscriminately.

First, let us look at the size of the population in Gaza, which is estimated at 1,805,000 (based on the 2010 census + extrapolated population growth).

The size of the various armed organizations in the Gaza strip is estimated at 25,000. This is also the figure the Hamas boasts (the Zionists have larger estimates, but why trust them?)

Therefore the number of uninvolved civilians in Gaza is 1,780,000.

At this point, according to the press the number of Palestinian casualties in Gaza is 572, with 28% being combatants and 72% being civilians. Therefore, as simple calculation shows that the odds for being killed by the IDF is 0.0064 if you’re a combatant/terrorist and 0.000247 if you’re a non-involved civilian.

That means your odds of being killed by the IDF if you’re a Hamas terrorist (or combatant, depending on one’s point of view) is 28.48 times greater than if you’re a civilian. Looks like there is a very cut and clear distinction with the IDF specifically going after Hamas and not civilians.

Some people, not familiar with the basics of the science of probability may ask, “So how come there are more dead civilians than combatants?” The answer is simple. Most of the people in Gaza are non-involved civilians. The terrorists are only 1.39% of the population.

Consider this: Had the IDF truly been killing people indiscriminately in Gaza, considering there are only 1.39% Hamas terrorists in Gaza, one would expect to see only 8 dead terrorists out of the total of 572 fatalities.

The current ratio of terrorists to civilians among the fatalities is in fact an indication of the IDF’s unparalleled efforts to safeguard the lives of civilians and target only the terrorists. This becomes even more clear when comparing similar situations such as the Americans in Fallujah or American air strikes in Pakistan (see sources below)



The ultimate argument is that war is war. People die. The question is who began the war and who refuses to stop it. That's what we need to concentrate on.

Around 600,000 German civilians died during the allies' wartime raids on Germany, including 76,000 German children

The charred, mutilated bodies of women, children and babies are all civilians who perished during the allies' bombing campaign against Germany's cities.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Every death in Gaza is the direct result of Hamas' policies. This is 100% their war. That must be emphasized and we need displace the Palestinian victimization meme. Not easy, but like the soldiers inside, we have no choice if we want to win this war.