Tuesday, June 16, 2009

I Think That Data Is Incorrect

The AP data here, even if they may be, although it is unclear as there are no quotation marks, the source is Micahel Orn:

The U.S. has long argued that settlements are obstacles to peace. Nearly 300,000 Israelis live in West Bank settlements, along with 180,000 Israelis in Jewish neighborhoods of east Jerusalem. The Palestinian seek both areas, captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war, as parts of a future independent state.


My impression is that we in Yesha have passed 300,000.

Extrapolation from statistics is tricky, for sure.

For example:

(1)

A new study by the University Center in Ariel concluded that the population in Judea and Samaria is growing at a rate three times higher than that in the rest of Israel. The study appears in the 2007 statistical journal put out by the University Center. Professors Dan Suan and Dr. Vered Ne’eman-Haviv led a team of researchers in compiling twelve chapters of information on all details of life in Judea and Samaria...

The study found that while in 1995 the population of Judea and Samaria stood at 130,000, as of 2007 it had jumped to 270,000 – in other words the population grew by 107%. In contrast the population of Israel grew by only 29% in the same period of time. Even more impressive is that in the three years between 2005 and 2007 the growth rate was 5% a year, three times higher than the rate in the rest of Israel of 1.7%.

The main factor in the growth came from natural increase. The birth rate in Judea and Samaria stands at 35 births per 1,000 persons whereas the average in the rest of Israel stands at only 20 births per 1,000 individuals. The second factor in growth came from positive migration (persons migrating in minus persons migrating out). In fact, Judea and Samaria had the highest rate of positive migration in all of Israel. The third factor in growth came from immigrants to Israel, who came mainly from the US, Britain, and France.


(2)

The official figures from Israel's Bureau of Statistics is 289,600 at end of 2008 with the end of 2007 being 276,100.


So, if in one year Jewish figures went up by 13,500, half of that (we're in June) is 6,750, at least.

289,600 + 6,750 = 296,350. And we know there's always a delay is registering births and domicile moves. We're over 300,000.

Add eastern Jerusalem neighborhoods, as this source notes, and

Give or take the odd few thousand (Israel is slow to update its figures), there are nearly 300,000 settlers in the West Bank and a further 200,000 in East Jerusalem.

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