Monday, March 23, 2009

Bi-Polar J Street Poll

The radical progressive J Street grouplet has a new poll out and the bottom line is:

that American Jews back strong U.S. involvement in reaching a Middle East peace agreement, negative feelings toward Avigdor Lieberman and a split regarding military action in Iran.


I searched for the section on revenant Jewish communities and found this:

American Jews Oppose Settlement Expansion: By a 60 to 40 percent margin, American Jews oppose the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank based on “what they know” and after receiving short statements by supporters and opponents of settlement expansion. Simply put, attitudes toward settlements are highly negative and firmly held. Not surprisingly, opposition to settlements is higher among Reform (64 percent oppose) and unaffiliated Jews (69 percent oppose), in contrast to Orthodox Jews who strongly support settlements (80 percent support). But one very interesting demographic finding is the strong opposition (72 percent oppose) among Jews who give money to political campaigns.


And here is the raw material:-

Q.60 From what you know about Israeli settlements in the West Bank, do you support or oppose expanding these settlements?

Total:

Strongly support..... 14

Somewhat support..... 25

Somewhat oppose..... 28

Strongly oppose..... 32

which sums up as Total Support..... 40 vs. Total Oppose..... 60.

Support - Oppose..... -21


Q.61 Supporters of expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank say this is the biblical Land of Israel, Jews have the right to live there, and settlement expansion is necessary to accommodate natural growth.

Opponents of expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank say the settlements break agreements with the United States, violate international law, and prevent Arab-Israeli peace because they establish Israeli population centers in the middle of a future Palestinian state.

After hearing these statements, do you support or oppose expanding these settlements?

Total

Strongly support..... 16

Somewhat support..... 24

Somewhat oppose..... 29

Strongly oppose..... 30


Total Support..... 40

Total Oppose..... 60

Support - Oppose..... -19



And remember:

Gerstein | Agne Strategic Communications designed the questionnaire for this survey of 800 self-identified adult American Jews, conducted February 28-March 8, 2009. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent; the margin of error in the split samples is +/- 4.9 percent.



Now, my comments:

1. Question #60 is phrased as "From what you know about Israeli settlements in the West Bank, do you support or oppose expanding these settlements?" What would have happened result-wise if I had composed the question so:

From what you know about Jewish communities established in Judea and Samaria, what is also referred to as the "West Bank", do you support or oppose these communities, towns and villages?


2. I would then add:

From what you know about Jewish communities established in Judea and Samaria, what is also referred to as the "West Bank", do you support or oppose the expanding of these communities, towns and villages within their official zoned areas, what is called "organic growth"?


3. As regards Question #61, I would have composed it so:-

Supporters of expanding the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, what is also referred to as the West Bank, say this is the biblical Land of Israel, Jews have the natural right to live there just as Arabs can live in Israel, that the international community assigned all this territory to have it become the Jewish national home before being partitioned and expansion is necessary to accommodate natural growth as well as contribute to Israel's security.

Opponents of expanding Israeli settlements in there claim the communities break agreements with the United States, violate international law, harm Israel's security and moral fibre and prevent Arab-Israeli peace because they establish Israeli population centers in the middle of a future Palestinian state.

After hearing these statements, do you support or oppose expanding these communities?


4. And notice, that while overall this is no change in negative responses from #60 to #61, actually the strongly opposed to #61 is reduced. In other words, the explanation within the question contributed to a doubt which reduced opposition from 32 to 30!

Is this poll that reliable now?

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