Go On, Guess

Go on, guess who wrote this:-

The alternative new Middle East features a Palestinian territory or territories under Hamas dominance, and a Lebanon whose anachronistic confessional system will soon be unable to contain the growing demographic challenge posed by Shiites. The only remaining question will be the degree that Iran, through Hezbollah, comes to dominate Lebanon, or at least southern Lebanon.

Tehran, though not yet a nuclear power, is already behaving like a regional hegemon. The area where it will hold sway in the alternative new Middle East begins with the southern two-thirds of Iraq, ruled by radical Shiite movements close to Iran. The relatively secular and Sunni Kurdish north of Iraq, like a growing number of the Gulf emirates, will increasingly take care to adopt policies that do not antagonize Iran despite, or because of, their apprehensions, and Syria will behave more and more like a client state of Iran. Those Gulf states with large Shiite populations — a majority in Bahrain, sizable minorities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia — can expect trouble.

Meanwhile, Sunni radical Islam will continue to shape its own sphere of the alternative new Middle East. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, of which Hamas is an offshoot, and in Jordan will be increasingly assertive in demanding a role in running those countries. So will the Islamists in Morocco and Yemen. And we still haven’t mentioned Al Qaeda.

Admittedly, this is a worst-case scenario. Yet it is so close to the current reality that it must be taken seriously.

Nu, which radical, extremeist right-wing religious nationalist is projecting this gloomy vision?

Yossi Alpher. Really.

One of the guys who was so excited about a process of over the last decade and more, indeed, he has been guiding us and leading us along that process, that has brought us to this very day where we are afraid of the 'tomorrow' that Alpher engineered, with help.

So, what's his solution?

Israel must look for ways to interact with the old Middle East in order to combat the Islamists. It should consider the concessions needed in order to team up with Egypt, Jordan and the Saudis in combating the Islamists: engage the moderate wing of Hamas, together with secular Palestinians, and isolate Hamas’s extremists; and accept accommodations that fall short of peace if they at least offer stability. Together they should target the contradictions in the Islamist front: Pit the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood against Iran and the Shiites; focus on non-Shiite Syria as the weak link in the so-called Shiite crescent and neutralize it, either militarily or diplomatically.

Well, he doesn't specify more territorial concessions.