Two? No. Three? Maybe. Four? Probably

I, of course, am way past this view and I'll explain below:-

Rather than an imminent two-state-solution, the reality is that a de-facto three-state solution is evolving (Israel, West Bank and Gaza). The ongoing focus on settlements obscures the truth, that until the PA becomes a functioning, united entity, a final breakthrough is not feasible.

Now, to return to my opinion, if there is a "two-state solution", the 'two states' are actually Egypt - who don't want the Gazans and never did want them within their state - and Jordan - who also do not want them even more than the Egyptians. The "solution" they want is that the Pals. should be far away from them.

I have also blogged years ago that we are now in that 'three-state' solution - Israel, Hamastan and Fatahland - and it is at least a 'four-state' solution, i.e., four states evolving out of the former Palestine Mandate: Israel, Jordan, Hamastan and Fatahland.

^

Just As I Called It

Back in May, I penned an oped which the NYTimes did not accept. I had quoted Khalil Shakiki who wrote there:

if the Palestinians don’t speak with one voice, the peace process cannot go far.

In my submission, I wrote:

At the present moment, “Palestine” has evolved over the past eight decades into four states. There is Israel and there is Jordan. Hamas controls Gaza and Fatah, for the time being, control Judea and Samaria. On January 27, 2009, Thomas Friedman suggested on this page that a five-state solution should be considered. Inflation is never a good idea. Nonetheless, it cannot be denied that a two-state solution already exists. Jordan is the Islamic Arab fulfillment of local nationalist claims and Israel is the fulfillment of Jewish national claims. All that is left are arrangements of a political, cultural and economic character to assure the rights and expectation of both populations within that geographical delineation.

I recalled that when I saw this:

...the two Palestinian territories [Gaza and the WB] have grown increasingly antagonistic toward each other.

The notion of a single "Palestine" seems to be receding, for the Barakat brothers and all Palestinians, a process accelerated by Israeli policies that restrict travel into and out of the Gaza Strip and limit its economic growth in a bid to undercut support for the area's ruling Islamist Hamas movement. Gaza and the West Bank are not only run by competing governments but also differ in indicators such as birthrates, population growth, cultural and religious attitudes, and prosperity. What is a two-hour car trip seems like a world away, with travel and other restrictions making it difficult for friends to visit and family members to gather.

And this telling mindset:

If the West Bank branch of the Barakat family views coexistence with Israel as important, the Barakat branch in Gaza is not so sanguine. Although hardly radical and not supportive of violence -- the family members here say they are disenchanted with aspects of Hamas's governance -- the children, in particular, do not envision peace. "There is no chance to coexist," Yousef said. "Israel does not want peace."

Maybe the Gazans should try stopping terror?

Two States; Three States - No State?

Abbas reiterates refusal to recognize Jewish state

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas reiterated his refusal on Saturday to recognize Israel as a Jewish state, Israel Radio reported.

"Historically, there are two states - Israel and Palestinian. Israel has Jews and other people, and this we are ready to recognize, but nothing else," the radio quoted Abbas as saying shortly after he landed in Saudi Arabia after brief stops in Egypt and Jordan.

Well, can "Palestine" have Jews and others, too, as well as Arab Muslims? Or do we apply reciprocity and have all Arabs moved out of Israel to match all the Jews having to leave "Palestine"?

And why should there be three states to emerge from the Palestine Mandate - two Arab (Jordan & "Palestine") and another one (Israel) which Abbas says cannot be only Jewish?

And is his solution but a way-station to detroying Israel?

Two, No, Three. No, Two

I had previously blogged that with the Hamas takeover of Gaza, Israel is now faced not with a two-state solution but a three-state solution.

So I was not surprised to read the transcript of Ayala Hason's interview with Condi Rice this excerpt:-

Interview With Ayala Hasson, Channel 1
Secretary Condoleezza Rice
Jerusalem, October 15, 2007

QUESTION: Talking about two-state solution, does the fact that Hamas controls Gaza, are we still talking about two-state solution or maybe we are talking
about a three-state solution?

SECRETARY RICE: Oh, it will have to be a two-state solution. And eventually, there will be a circumstance in which Hamas and others who don't want a two-state solution will be outside of the consensus of the international community, of the parties themselves, of the regional states...

QUESTION: And if not? There is the West Bank, there is Gaza.

SECRETARY RICE: No, no, no. Because when there -- there has to ultimately be unity for the Palestinians. And I believe that the concrete manifestation of their state will encourage that unity.