Although a unilateral Palestinian declaration of statehood is a seemingly attractive alternative to negotiations and is gaining credence among a growing group of countries, it is an almost surefire recipe for war. If the Palestinian government unilaterally claims land where an estimated 400,000 Israeli settlers currently reside in the West Bank, don't expect them simply to pull up and move, especially if they were not consulted on the matter. Expect them to fight.
From there, a border dispute with Israel becomes inevitable. And in the Middle East, border disputes are not settled through binding arbitration. Another military conflict is sure to follow. We can expect the Iran-sponsored proxies Hezbollah and Hamas to launch new rounds of rocket attacks, and perhaps even a military assault from the Palestinian territories...the new Palestinian security forces [and read this report*] can more easily deploy to various corners of the West Bank to defend Abbas's territorial claims.
Even if it did not result in an open war with Israel, a unilateral declaration of statehood would probably not do the Palestinians any favors...the two factions [Hamas & Fatah] will almost certainly square off over who constitutes the sovereign government.
...A two-state solution may be around the corner, but that doesn't mean peace will follow.
Schanzer is the author of a piece on the Talibanization of Gaza. He is off on the two-state gambit but spot on with the future violence that will certainly develop from the establishment of an independent "Arab Palestine" simply because the concept of Palestianization is the negation of Jewish nationalism.
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Palestinian analyst Hani Masri, head of the independent Bada'el think-tank in Ramallah, says..."Without a political horizon, the results we've seen on internal security could collapse rather than continue,"
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