An Election Analysis For Voting

Interesting tip by Yediot Ahronot's Hanoch Daum (precis):

Zipi Livni's last chance to become prime-minister is simply if the Religious Zionists vote for the Likud. That is the only way that Netanyahu can lose these elections.

The calculation is simple: by all accounts, the right bloc is 62 - 66 mandates. However, if the Religious Zionists vote Likud, the Ichud Leumi and Bayit Yehudi, which currently are just over the minimum percentage ("achuz chasima") will not get into the Knesset, in which case the right block loses about 6 mandates. This will give the left a majority of 61 mandates…. The calculations that the Religious Zinoists must make is simple: 4 - 5 mandates will vote for Ichud Leumi and Bayit Yehudi whatever happens. The question then becomes, is it better for some lady from Bet Shemesh, the Likud's No. 32, to get into the Knesset, and for the Bayit Yehudi and Ichud Leumi to be knocked out of the Knesset, or is it better for the lady from Bet Shemesh not to get in, and for Ketzaleh, Orlev, Hershowitz and Uri Ariel etc. to get in.

One or two mandates for Likud can thus knock off SIX mandates for the right-wing bloc.

Netanyahu at this week's press release asked the Religious Zionists to vote for Likud. I can understand him, but if he thinks about it, he will avoid this dangerous step. This could be a Pyrrhic victory. Netanyahu has to understand that the Ichud Leumi and Bayit Yehudi are just over the edge. They will make it into the Knesset, but if he moves against him they will not, and he - Netanyahu -- will be the big loser if that happens.

If the Bayit Yehudi and Ichud Leumi do not clear the minimum percentage ("threshhold"), Livni will be prime-minister. Sometimes the bottom line is simple. Rightwing religious voters who want Netanyahu to be prime-minister, should vote Bayit Yehudi and Ichud Leumi.