Demography Demonology Dead?

Israel, we have lectured to for five decades, cannot maintain its rule over Judea and Samaria because there are too many Arabs.  It started in government deliberations in the months after the 1967 Six Days War and continued until today.

Or yesterday.

Here's the Haaretz report by Amira Hass:

Lebanon Census Finds Number of Palestinian Refugees Only a Third of Official UN Data

A census in Lebanon finds 175,000 Palestinian refugees living in the country, while the UN figure put their number at 500,000

Fox News via Associated Press:

Census shows there are 174,422 Palestinians in Lebanon

BEIRUT –  The first official census of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon has revealed that there are 174,422 Palestinians now living in Lebanon, a figure almost two thirds less than previously estimated.

The Jewish Press asks:

 How Did Lebanon Misplace a Quarter-Million ‘Palestinians’?

A based-in-England Arab outlet spins it this way:

Palestinians in Lebanon less than half previous estimate, census shows

Palestinian leaders believe revelation of fewer Palestinians in the country should encourage politicians to improve their conditions

And further informs that the

UNRWA welcomed the census and will be able to better plan its programmes with the “updated and accurate information...Now we will have scientific data in hand,” 

And details the method:

The census was conducted by the Lebanese Central Administration of Statistics and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics under the umbrella of the Lebanese Palestinian Dialogue Committee, a group formed by the Lebanese government to study and propose policies related to the Palestinian population.

Hundreds of Palestinian and Lebanese youth went from house to house with tablet computers to conduct the count, and the data was then linked to the location of the dwellings using a geographic information system, Director-General of the Lebanese Central Administration of Statistics Maral Tutelian Guidanian said.

The point is that

The census contradicts earlier estimates of more than 450,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.

According to the official Palestinian Authority's population data, there were  2,935,368 Arabs residing in the territory they call the 'West Bank' at the end of 2016.

If we apply the Lebanese Theorem Principle, there are probably under 2,000,000 Arabs in that area in actuality.

We know that the data show that in 2015 24.4% of the West Bank population are refugees while 68.5% of Gaza Strip population are refugees.

We also know the emigration figures are high as findings show that 23.6% of youth (15-29 years) in Palestine desire to migrate abroad.

We know the birth rate and fertility is low.  We know the growth rate is low. 

And now via Lebanon we know they cheat at statistics.

It would seem the Demography Threat is not as bad as it is portrayed.

_____________

Yoram Ettinger, who has been on this issue for years,  just wrote me that his data indicates but 1.85 million Arabs living in Judea and Samaria.

Yakov Faitelson is also exact in details on this matter and accuses the Pal. Authority of hiding data.

Ian Lustick who has jettisoned the Two-State Solution long ago ("Dead Plan Walking"), and again just recently, and who believes that the "paths to political decisions in Israel and the United States that could result in that outcome via negotiations are so implausible that the negotiations themselves end up protecting and deepening oppressive conditions", has argued that population data is being manipulated - by Zionists. Who is been manipulating really?

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Clarifying Demography or, What Threat?

From Yoram Ettinger's latest:

Defying demographic projections

 

in sharp contrast with the demographic establishment's projections, there is a 66 percent Jewish majority (6.3 million Jews) in the combined area of pre-1967 Israel (1.65 million Arabs) and Judea and Samaria (1.66 million Arabs), compared with a 40% Jewish minority in 1948 and a 9% Jewish minority in 1900. The Jewish majority enjoys a robust tailwind of high fertility rates and immigration, which could produce an 80% Jewish majority by 2035.

 

These 6.3 million Jews (including 350,000 new immigrants not yet recognized as Jews by the rabbinate) expose the systematic errors made by leading demographers...In defiance of demographic projections, Israel's Jewish fertility rate of three births per woman is higher than any Arab country's other than Yemen, Iraq and Jordan. The modernity-driven downward trend of Muslim demography is highlighted by Iran's fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman, Saudi Arabia's 2.3 and Syria's and Egypt's 2.9...Israel's Jewish-Arab fertility gap has been reduced from six births in 1969 to half a birth in 2012. Moreover, the fertility rates of Jewish and Arab women in their 20s and 30s — in Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel — has converged at three births per woman, with the Jewish rate trending above — and the Arab rate trending below — three births. Furthermore, the fertility rate of Israeli-born Jewish women is already above three births per woman.

In defiance of the demographic profession, the annual number of Israel's Jewish births has surged by 62.5% from 80,400 in 1995 to 130,000 in 2012, while the annual number of Israeli Arab births has been sustained at around 40,000 annually. In 1995, there were 2.3 Jewish births for one Arab birth; in 2012 there were 3.2 Jewish births for one Arab birth...

Anyone suggesting that Jews are doomed to become a minority west of the Jordan River is either dramatically mistaken or outrageously misleading.

And, on the other hand, there was this:-

First, peace is necessary.  (Applause.)  I believe that.  I believe that peace is the only path to true security.  (Applause.)  You have the opportunity to be the generation that permanently secures the Zionist dream, or you can face a growing challenge to its future.  Given the demographics west of the Jordan River, the only way for Israel to endure and thrive as a Jewish and democratic state is through the realization of an independent and viable Palestine.  (Applause.)  That is true.

That was US President Barack H. Obama.

Oh, well.

So much for the future.

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Demographic Demonology

A friend sent this around:

Anyone care to comment on the numbers they [Barak Ravid] are saying*, and the consequences if it's true?

I quickly responded:

sure. Yoram Ettinger has proven the PCBS lies.

He calls it demographobia. Check his other articles. And search my blog, looking for "demography", etc.

Another acquaintance wrote this:

Even according to the inflated PCBS numbers, as they appear in the piece, there are 4 million Arabs in the West Bank-Israel. The uninflated numbers are closer to 3.2 million (here; and here).

According to the ICBS numbers, there are 5.9 million Jews in that same area. This number is undisputed. Now, it makes no difference which numbers you choose, the inflated PCBS ones or the uninflated Israeli ones, the figures say the same thing: Jews constitute 60-65% of the population of Israel and the West Bank together, and even in the highly unlikely scenario that every single West Bank Arab becomes a citizen of Israel (presuming Israel were to allow such a thing) together with every single Arab resident of Jerusalem that has hitherto refrained from accepting Israeli citizenship, there is little chance there will be an Arab majority of Israeli citizens in the foreseeable future. Ravid’s attempt to pretend otherwise is based on including inflated Gaza numbers, and inflated Gaza population growth rates, neither of which are relevant.

*

What Ravid wrote:

Last week, the Palestinian Authority's Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) published its report summarizing 2011...The report revealed that the number of Palestinians in the territories stands at about 4.2 million people: 2.6 million in the West Bank and 1.6 million in the Gaza Strip. Added to them are about 1.4 million Palestinians who are Israeli citizens and about 5.6 million Palestinians that belong to the Arab countries and the rest of the world.

On the one hand, no Israelis are citizens of "Palestine", as yet, if at all.  Not fair.  On the other, why count abroad Arabs?  There are millions more Jews.  So?

In other words, Haaretz is again the Ha-Ha-Haaretz.

Boo!

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